Costa Rican forward Manfred Ugalde split two sets of Dominican defenders to find forward Josimar Alcócer for the game-winning goal Wednesday in a come-from-behind 2-1 victory over the Dominican Republic.

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Costa Rica win with a probability of 49.05%. A win for Dominican Republic has a probability of 27.62% and a draw has a probability of 23.3%.