Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could drive oil prices as high as $120 per barrel according to JP Morgan, benefiting Exxon Mobil's earnings outlook. Applying the Graham Number, Exxon Mobil's intrinsic value ranges from $103 to $134 per share, depending on EPS scenarios.

If prices go up, Fed officials may be inclined to raise its benchmark rate, raising borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. That could lead to businesses to cut jobs, particularly in the high-growth tech sector, and force Americans to pull back on spending, which drives more than 70% of economic activity in the U.S.