2 days ago · Find out more about our PECOTA projections. Read the release notes.

6 days ago · PECOTA simulates the season over and over to project what might happen for every team, and there are plenty of noteworthy projections for this year. Remember, standings projections aren't meant to be a perfect crystal ball for exactly how the season will shake out -- they're just an attempt to use all the information we have …

PECOTA, an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, [1] is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance.

1 day ago · Orioles: PECOTA still expects the O's to compete for the division title despite losing Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander. Orioles general manager Mike Elias had a puzzling offseason, failing to ...

Feb 3, 2025 · Traditionally, PECOTA projects individual batting events: not only strikeouts and walks, but singles, doubles, triples, home runs, etc. However, a projection is usually graded on composite run value. If the final run value is not accurate enough, you need to identify the problematic event and improve that model. Perfectly doable, but always ...

6 days ago · PECOTA cannot necessarily project injuries. In 2023, the Yankees were viewed like the 99-win team in 2022, who made it through that season mostly healthy until late injuries to DJ LeMahieu, Andrew ...

Feb 3, 2025 · PECOTA gives the Twins a 62.9% chance to make the playoffs, a 45.3% chance to reach the divisional round, and a 4.7% chance to win the World Series. For context, that’s the ninth-highest ...

Feb 3, 2025 · Maybe PECOTA wouldn’t actually identify the Cubs as the third best team in baseball if all schedules were exactly balanced, but it seems apparent that they’d be way up there. The projections on win totals – again, these are median projections – are so conservative across the board. Just those three teams are projected to win over 90 ...

Feb 3, 2025 · Under PECOTA's projections, the Amazins' will have the seventh-best record in the major leagues behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, Braves, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees,...

PECOTA is used primarily for projecting the performance of individual players, but it can be applied to entire teams as well to project records. It uses predicted depth charts to establish the projected runs for and against each team, before gleaning a projected win total from that.